So I waded into the WAR data and decided to look at historical WAR data to get a feel on contextual relationships between former greats and supposed current stars. I have found that WAR (Wins Against Replacement) the most fascinating statistical relationship since it tries to answer so many questions baseball fanatics have, like who is better using one composite measurement. [For those sabermetrics convergent just jump from here Now that was done...]
WAR for position players, uses wOBA (weighted on-base average), plus fielding and base-running. Now it needs to be noted that WAR is a non-standardized sabermetric statistic, meaning that there is an evolving consensus between mathematicians at the three major statistical powers, Baseball Prospectus, Fangraphs and Baseball Reference where each calculating their WAR's differently (to an esoteric degree) but all use the same principles. For this research I used Baseball Reference's historic scores because they had developed the research and they used baserunning where FANGRAPH's does not.
Specifically the differences are that Baseball Reference uses Total Zone, (a less accurate statistical fielding metric now), but available through historical data) while FANGRAPH's uses UZR recently developed but data only available since 2002. That negates using FANGRAPH's for historical comparisons. Furthermore Baseball Reference also includes baserunning metrics in its WAR calculations while FANGRAPH's does not. The net result is that Baseball Reference's scores are somewhat lower for most players.
One more explanation note: wOBA (or weighted on-base average is a statistic, that is based on linear weights, that seek to measure a player's overall offensive contributions on a per plate appearance. It uses certain run values on offensive events, then by dividing by a player's plate appearances. Most importantly, scaling the result to be on the same scale as on-base percentage(OBP). Unlike OPS, wOBA attempts to assign a more appropriate value for each type of hitting event---meaning a walk is not as good as a hit in that it is 72% of one where a single is 90% of one. The original formula is 0.72x Not Intentional Base on Balls + 0.75x Hits Batsman + 0.90x1B + 0.92x Reached on a base error + 1.24x 2B + 1.56x 3B + 1.95x HR.
Furthermore, WAR numbers then are calculated to specific to fielding positions, since some positions are tougher to play than others, and then the score is based on the replacement level (the value to a team if they were to lose that player and they had to replace the player with a “replacement” player, either a minor league AAA or waiver wire, AAAA). Then convert the run value to wins (10 runs = 1 win) and there is the score.
Now that is done as I began to wade into the historical data I found that the career composite WAR result was actually meaningless in that some players played twenty two years and some a dozen or so. I decided that if I was a General Manager I would be interested in knowing what was considered Prime Performance Years and Post Prime Performance Years. From there I could calculate averages and then begin to compare respective players and then further discover some new relationships like standard deviations of age and number of years in the league for peak performance years. Percentage loss of prime performing year averages and post prime performance averages and comparisons to traditional statistical measurements. Ultimately the idea is to identify player activities that bring about the primary goal of all teams and not merely interesting activities.
Therefore I developed two categories, a consecutive 10-year Prime WAR average and then a corresponding consecutive five year post prime WAR average. Each player I would find their best ten year runs and then follow up with their next five consecutive years. Some players did not have five full years retiring within those five years while a few others continued to play. Each player I noted their Peak WAR year and then divided their 10-year average into their Peak WAR year to ascertain a percentage loss off the peak year. I then determined their post prime average and divided that into their 10-year average and found a percentage loss for each category. Lastly I recorded their career WAR score and averaged that, and divided that number into the 10 year Prime average and recorded the net percentage loss.
Let us look at the Ron Santo example:
Ron Santo as all Cub fans know has been screwed by the Hall of Fame balloting for induction, but by how much? Okay, traditional baseball statistics holds that he ranks 87th in Home Runs (342) and also in RBI's (1,332). His batting line of .277/.362/.464 .826-OPS (296th). His fielding using Total Zone rating is 27 and ranked 46th all time for 3rd Baseman. Conceivably, there is little to hang your hat here, but WAR says not so fast, especially using my10-year Prime average where Santo ranks 31st all-time for all position players and 5th all-time among 3rd Baseman behind; Schmidt, Rodriquez (combined), Matthews, and Boggs, and ahead of George Brett, Chipper Jones and Brooks Robinson, all who made my Top-50 WAR Prime Average List. (Scott Rolen was ranked 51st and he will be included with Ramirez's analysis).
3rd Baseman in TOP-50 10 year Prime WAR average
| Position Players Team w/Prime Yrs | 10 YR Prime WAR average | Peak WAR YR | Best WAR Value | Loss from Peak Value in Prime ave | Post Prime 5 year WAR ave | Loss from Prime 10yr ave to 5Yr | Career WAR total/ave | Loss from 10 YR value to career ave |
| Schmidt-3B Phils | (13) (‘74-’83) WAR-8.15 | 3rd (24) | (21) 10.5 (‘74) | (7) 22% | 4.74 | 42% | (19)108.3 (6.37) | (6) 22% |
| Rodriquez-SS/3B Sea/TX/NYY | (16) (‘98-’07) WAR-7.62 | 7th (24) | (15) 11.0 (‘00) | (29) 31% | 3.83 | 50% | (23)105 (5.83) | (10) 24% |
| Matthews-3B Braves | (18) ‘53-’62) WAR-7.32 | 2nd (21) | (36) 8.9 (‘53) | (4) 18% | 4.28 | 42% | (28)98.3 (5.78) | (4) 21% |
| Boggs-3B RedSox/NYY | (24) (‘82-’91) WAR-6.93 | 6th (29) | (32) 9.1 (‘88) | (11) 24% | 3.92 | 43% | (42)89.0 (4.94) | (16) 29% |
| R Santo-3B Cubs | (31) (‘63-’72) WAR-6.34 | 8th (27) | (23) 10.2 (‘67) | (42) 38% | (0.00) | 100% | (109)66.4 (4.43) | (18) 30% |
| G Brett-3B Royals | (32) ‘76-’85) WAR-6.22 | 8th (27) | (29) 9.6 (‘80) | (37) 35% | 3.42 | 45% | (47)85.0 (4.05) | (36) 35% |
| C Jones-3B Braves | (46) (‘98-’07) WAR-5.54 | 15th (35) | (46) 7.9 (‘'07) | (26) 30% | 3.55 | 36% | (50)83.0 (4.61) | 17% |
| B. Robinson-3B O's | (50) (‘62-’71) WAR-5.19 | 10th (27) | (43) 8.1 (‘64) | (38) 36% | 2.08 | 60% | (89)69.1 (3.0) | 46% |
Therefore for their 10 prime years Santo was considered the 5th best 3rd Baseman in baseball against the 10-year prime years of his historical peers. In 1967 his 10.2 was the league's best and ranked better than B Robinson's, Chipper Jones', Wade Boggs, and Eddie Matthew's career best WAR years and only marginally second to Mike Schmidt's big year in 1974. What appears to be Santo's problem is that after 1972 his performance fell off the table where he averaged a 0.00 for his two remaining years. Santo also didn't have a World Series entry or win in his prime or post prime. And just to needle my un-favorite, Joe Morgan, who is reputed to be one of Santo's HOF detractors, Santo is merely 11 spots below Morgan's spot in the Top-50. Here is the complete position players Top-50 list
TOP-50 Position Players Prime Years WAR Average
Position Players Team w/Prime Yrs | 10 YR Prime WAR average | Peak WAR YR | Best WAR Value | Loss from Peak Value in Prime ave | Team W/L % 10yr | WS in Prime WAR YRS | Total WS Career | Post Prime 5 year WAR ave | Loss from Prime 10yr ave to 5Yr | Career WAR total/ave | Loss from 10 YR value to career ave | MVP (YR) | OPS career |
WAR 900 + Kings of the Domain | |||||||||||||
Ruth-OF NYY | (1) (‘19-’28) WAR 10.12 | 8th (26) | (1) 14.0('21) | (22) 27% | (6) .608 | (4) 5 (3) | 8 (6) | 10.0 | 1.2% | (1)190.0 (8.63) | 15% | 1('23) | (1) 1.164 |
Gehrig-1B NYY | (2) (‘27-’36) WAR 9.69 | 4th (23) | (6) 12.0(‘27) | (2) 16% | (2) .632 | (2) 5 (5) | 8 (7) | 4.5 | 54% | (16)118.4 (6.96) | 28% | 2 ('27 & '36) | (3) 1.080 |
Mays-OF Giants | (3) (‘57-’66) WAR 9.62 | 15th (34) | (15) 11.0 (‘65) | (1) 13% | (21) .547 | (27) 1 (0) | 3 (1) | 5.6 | 42% | (4)154.7 (7.03) | 27% | 2 ('54 & '65) | (29) .941 |
Hornsby-2B StL/Cubs | (4) (‘20-’29) WAR ave 9.60 | 9th (28) | (2) 13.0(‘24) | (16) 26% | (23) .543 | (16) 2 (1) | 2 (1) | 1.32 | 86% | (11)127.8 (5.56) | 42% | 2 ('25 & 29) | (8) 1.010 |
Cobb-OF Tigers | (5) (‘09-’18) WAR 9.04 | 13th (30) | (8) 11.7('17) | (9) 23% | (30) .537 | (24) 2 (0) | 3(0) | 5.78 | 36% | (3)159.4 (6.64) | 27% | 1 ('11) | (27) .945 |
Ba Bonds-OF Giants | (6) (‘95-’04) WAR 9.00 | 16th (36) | (2) 13.0('01) | (29) 31% | (22) .545 | (27) 1 (0) | 1 (0) | 3.1 | 66% | (2)171.8 (7.80) | 13% | 7 (,90,'92, '93. '01, '02, '03, '04) | (4) 1.051 |
WAR 800 + Order of Excellence 1st Ballot HOF and MVP's | |||||||||||||
M Mantle-OF NYY | (7) (‘53-’62) WAR 8.96 | 6th (24) | (4) 12.9(‘56) | (29) 31% | (1) .674 | (1) 8 (5) | 12 (7) | 3.76 | 59% | (15)120.2 (6.68) | 25% | 3 ('56, '57, '62) | (11) .977 |
T Williams-OF RedSox | (8) 39-’42/’46-’50 WAR 8.60 | 5th (27) | (9) 11.6(‘46) | (16) 26% | (14) .579 | (28) 1 (0) | 1 (0) | 4.58 | 47% | (14)125.3 (6.59) | 23% | 2 ('46 & '49) | (2) 1.116 |
A Pujols-1B StL | (9) (‘01-’10) WAR-8.37 | 3rd (23) | (19) 10.9(‘03) | (9) 23% | (19) .558 | (16) 2 (1) | 2 (1) | 5.5 | 36% | (41)89.20* (8.11) | 3% | 3 ('05,'08, '09) | (5) 1.039 |
Musial-OF StL | (10) (‘43-’52) WAR-8.31 | 7th (27) | (11) 11.5 (‘48) | (26) 30% | (8) .589 | (12) 3 (2) | 3 (2) | 5.86 | 29% | 11)127.8 (5.81) | 30% | 3 ('43,46, '48) | (13) .946 |
E Collins-2B A's/WhiteSox | (11) (‘09-’18) WAR-8.26 | 9th (27) | (14) 11.3 (‘14) | (22) 27% | (3) .616 | (8) 4 (3) | 6 (4) | 5.30 | 36% | (13)126.7 (5.07) | 39% | 1 ('14) | (166) .853 |
H Aaron-OF Braves | (12) ('58-'67) WAR-8.22 | 9th (29) | (25) 10.0('63) | (4) 18% | (27) .538 | (16) 2 (1) | 2 (1) | 5.80 | 29% | (6)141.6 (6.16) | 25% | 1 ('57) | (41) .928 |
Schmidt-3B Phils | (13) (‘74-’83) WAR-8.15 | 3rd (24) | (21) 10.5(‘74) | (7) 22% | (21) .548 | (16) 2 (1) | 2 (1) | 4.74 | 42% | (19)108.3 (6.37) | 22% | 3 ('80,'81, '86) | (60) .908 |
H Wagner-SS Pirates | (14) (‘03-’12) WAR 8.13 | 12th (34) | (9) 11.6(‘08) | (26) 30% | (4) .613 | (25) 1 (1) | 1 (1) | 2.58 | 68% | (8)134.5 (6.40) | 31% | 2 ('26 & '29) | (149) .857 |
700+ The WAR Elite | |||||||||||||
T Speaker-OF RSox/Indians | (15) (‘12-’21) WAR-7.92 | 6th (24) | (15) 11.0 (‘12) | (25) 28% | (9) .588 | (15) 2 (2) | 2 (2) | 6.22 | 21% | (9)132.9 (6.05) | 34% | 1 ('12) | (43) .928 |
Rodriquez-SS/3B Sea/TX/NYY | (16) (‘98-’07) WAR-7.62 | th (24) | (15) 11.0 (‘00) | (29) 31% | (36) .524 | (28) 1 (0) | 1(1) | 3.83 | 50% | (23)105 (5.83) | 24% | 3 ('03,'05, '07) | (21) .954 |
Henderson-OF A's | (17) (‘81-’90)WAR-7.35 | 7th (26) | (25) 10.0(85,'90) | (16) 26% | (35) .525 | (28) 1 (0) | 1 (0) | 3.84 | 48% | (17)113.1 (4.52) | 38% | 1 ('90) | (40) .820 |
Matthews-3B Braves | (18) ‘53-’62) WAR-7.32 | 2nd (21) | (36) 8.9(‘53) | (4) 18% | (41) .514 | (16) 2 (1) | 2 (1) | 4.28 | 42% | (28)98.3 (5.78) | 21% | (83) .885 | |
Mel Ott-OF Giants | (19) (‘29-’38) WAR-7.22 | 13th (28) | (38) 8.7(‘38) | (3) 17% | (15) .574 | (13) 3 (1) | 3 (1) | 5.04 | 30% | (18)109.3 (4.97) | 31% | (24) .947 | |
J Morgan-2B Reds | (20) (‘69-’78) WAR-7.15 | 13th (31) | (6) 12.0 (‘75) | (44) 40% | (20) .552 | (6) 5 (2) | 6 (2) | 3.24 | 65% | (20)103.5 (4.70) | 34% | 2 ('75,'76) | (349) .819 |
DiMaggio-OF NYY | (21) (‘37-’42/’46-’48) WAR-7.00 | 6th (26) | (31) 9.4 (‘41) | (16) 26% | (7) .591 | (2) 5 (5) | 8 (8) | 4.40 | 37% | (49)83.6 (6.43) | 8% | 3 ('39,'41, '47) | (12) .977 |
600 + WAR Perennial All Stars | |||||||||||||
J Foxx-1B A's/RedSox | (22) '28-'37) WAR-6.95 | 8th (24) | (21) 10.5 ('32) | 24% | (17) .569 | (12) 2 (3) | 2 (3) | 4.84 | 30% | (30)94.1 (4.70) | 33% | 3 ('32,'33, '38) | (6) 1.038 |
A Vaughan-SS Pirates | (23)('32-'43) WAR-6.94 | 4th (23) | (32) 9.1 ('35) | (11) 24% | (31) .533 | 0 (0) | 0 (0) | 3.88 | 44% | (66)75.6 (5.40) | 22% | (151) .859 | |
Boggs-3B RedSox/NYY | (24) (‘82-’91) WAR-6.93 | 6th (29) | (32) 9.1 (‘88) | (11) 24% | (34) .526 | (28) 1 (0) | 2 (1) | 3.92 | 43% | (42)89.0 (4.94) | 29% | (146) .858 | |
Griffey Jr-OF Seattle/Reds | (25) (‘91-’00) WAR-6.71 | 8th (26) | (27) 9.7 (‘96) | (29) 31% | (39) .515 | 0 (0) | 0 (0) | 1.16 | 83% | (60)78.5 (3.57) | 47% | 1 ('97) | (61) .907 |
Ripken-SS O's | (26)(‘82-’91) WAR-6.65 | 11th (30) | (15)11.0 (‘91) | (44) 40% | (48) .485 | (25) 1 (1) | 1 (1) | 3.56 | 46% | (38)89.9 (4.28) | 36% | 2 ('83,'91) | .788 |
J Bagwell-1B Astros | (27)(‘92-’01) WAR-6.57 | 4th (26) | (36) 8.9 (‘94) | (16) 26% | (27) .538 | 0 (0) | 1 (0) | 2.38 | 73% | (57)79.9 (5.32) | 19% | 1 ('94) | (22) .948 |
F Robinson-OF Reds/O's | (28)(‘60-’69) WAR-6.47 | 7th (26) | (39) 8.5 (‘62) | (11) 24% | (17) .561 | (13) 3 (1) | 5 (2) | 3.78 | 42% | (20)107.4 (5.11) | 21% | 2 ('61,'66) | (45) .926 |
Clemente-OF Pirates | (29)(‘63-’72) WAR-6.36 | 13th (32) | (41) 8.2 (‘67) | (7) 22% | (27) .538 | (25) 1 (1) | 2 (2) | N/A | N/A | (48)83.8 (4.65) | 27% | 1 ('66) | (247) .834 |
Gehringer-2B Tigers | (30 (‘30-’39) WAR-6.36 | 11th (31) | (28) 9.5 (‘34) | (34) 33% | (37) 518 | (16) 2 (1) | 3 (1) | 0.80 | 88% | (55)80.9 (4.25) | 33% | 1 ('37) | (87) 884 |
R Santo-3B Cubs | (31)(‘63-’72) WAR-6.34 | 8th (27) | (23) 10.2 (‘67) | (42) 38% | (42) .502 | 0 (0) | 0 (0) | (0.00) | 100% | (105)66.4 (4.43) | 30% | (296) .826 | |
Brett-3B Royals | (32) ‘76-’85) WAR-6.22 | 8th (27) | (29) 9.6 (‘80) | (37) 35% | (44). | (16) 2 (1) | 2 (1) | 3.42 | 45% | (47)85.0 (4.05) | 35% | 1 ('80) | (152) .857 |
V Guerrero-OF Expos/Angels | (33)('98-'07) WAR6.03 | 9th (29) | (49) 7.4 ('04) | 29% | (38) .517 | 0 (0) | 1 (0) | 1.18 | 81% | (160)59.2 (3.7) | 39% | 1 ('04) | (35) .932 |
WAR 500+ All Stars Club | |||||||||||||
D Snyder-OF Dodgers | (34)('49-'58) WAR-5.88 | 7th (26) | (30) 9.5 ('53) | (40) 37% | (6) .598 | (7) 5 (1) | 7 (3) | 1.88 | 68% | (49)67.5 (3.75) | 36% | (51) .919 | |
Yazt'mski-OF RedSox | (35)(‘63-’72) WAR-5.82 | 7th (27) | (5) 12.2 (‘67) | (49) 52% | (31) 528 | (28) 1 (0) | 1 (0) | 3.76 | 35% | (43)88.7 (3.86) | 34% | (216) .841 | |
Carew-2B Twins/Angels | (36)(‘69-’78) WAR-5.82 | 11th (31) | (20) 10.7 (‘77) | (48) 46% | (38) .515 | 0 (0) | 0 (0) | 3.06 | 48% | (58)79.1 (4.16) | 28% | 1 ('77) | (328) .822 |
G Carter-C Expos/Mets | (37)('77-'86) WAR-5.80 | 9th (28) | (47) 7.8 ('82) | (16) 26% | (24) .543 | (25) 1 (1) | 1 (1) | 0.64 | 89% | (106)66.3 (3.49) | 40% | (792) .773 | |
F. Thomas-1B WSox | (38)('91-'00) WAR-5.80 | 3rd (24) | (48) 7.6 ('92) | (11) 24% | (33).527 | 0 (0) | 0 (0) | 1.96 | 66% | (39)75.9 (3.99) | 31% | (14) .974 | |
J Bench-C Reds | (39)(‘68-’77) WAR-5.78 | 6th (24) | (32) 9.1 ('72) | (40) 37% | (10) .585 | (9) 4 (2) | 4 (2) | 2.76 | 52% | (79)71.3 (4.19) | 28% | 2('70,'72) | (359) .817 |
Heilmann-OF Tigers/Reds | (4)('21-'30) WAR-5.77 | 10th (28) | (27) 9.8 ('23) | (38) 36% | (47) .493 | 0 (0) | 0 (0) | -0.1 | 100% | (44)69.4 (4.08) | 29% | (37) .930 | |
Kaline-OF Tigers | (41)(‘55-’64) WAR-5.74 | 3rd (20) | (35) 9.0 (‘55) | (15) 25% | (24) .543 | 0 (0) | 1 (1) | 4.62 | 20% | (34)91.0 (4.14) | 28% | (156) .855 | |
Banks-SS/1B Cubs | (42)('55-'64) WAR-5.71 | 7th (28) | (23) 10.0 ('59) | (46) 43% | (50) .412 | 0 (0) | 0(0) | 1.64 | 72% | (119)64.1 (3.39) | 41% | 2 ('58,'59) | (279) .830 |
P.Rose-OF/IF Reds | (43) ('67-'76) WAR-5.70 | 11th (32) | (39) 8.5 ('73) | (34) 33% | (12) .584 | (9) 4 (2) | 6 (3) | 1.80 | 68% | (67)75.3 (3.14) | 45% | 1 ('73) | (669) .784 |
R Yount-SS Brewers | (44) ('80-'89) WAR-5.56 | 9th (26) | (11) 11.5 ('82) | (49) 52% | (45) | (28) 1 (0) | 1 (0) | 2.80 | 50% | (61)76.9 (3.85) | 31% | 2 ('82,'89) | (812) .772 |
Simmons-OF A's/WSox/ | (45)(‘25-’34) WAR-5.55 | 7th (28) | (44) 8.0 (‘30) | (29) 31% | (16) .573 | (16) 2 (1) | 2(1) | 1.68 | 70% | (52)63.6 (3.18) | 43% | (55) .915 | |
C Jones-3B Braves | (46)(‘98-’07) WAR-5.54 | 15th (35) | (46) 7.9 (‘'07) | (26) 30% | (10).585 | (28) 1 (0) | 3 (1) | 3.55 | 36% | (50)83.0 (4.61) | 17% | 1 ('97) | (32) .936 |
S Sosa-OF Cubs | (47)('93-'02) WAR-5.43 | 13th (32) | (13) 11.4 ('01) | (47) 53% | (49) .468 | 0 (0) | 0 (0) | 1.12 | 80% | 59.7 (3.32) | 39% | (106) .878 | |
I Rodriquez-C TX/FL/Tigers | (48)('96-'05) WAR-5.35 | 8th (26) | (50) 6.6 ('98) | (6) 19% | (48) .488 | (28) 1 (0) | 2 (1) | 1.16 | 89% | (48)67.1 (3.15) | 85% | 1 ('99) | (529) .798 |
D Jeter-SS NYY | (49)('98-'07) AR-5.28 | 5th (25) | (45) 8.0 ('99) | (36) 34% | (5).610 | (4) 5 (3) | 7 (4) | 3.14 | 41% | (81)70.6 (4.15) | 81% | (261) .832 | |
BRobinson-3B O's | (50)(‘62-’71) WAR-5.19 | 10th (27) | (43) 8.1 (‘64) | (38) 36% | (13) .580 | (9) 4 (2) | 4 (2) | 2.08 | 60% | (89)69.1 (3.0) | 46% | 1 ('64) | (1545) 723 |
Finally I am going to continue this research, next up being the TOP-50 WAR pitchers. It appears that a ten-year average is not appropriate for pitchers in that pitchers appear to have a shorter shelf life than star position players. Pitchers' WAR is figured somewhat differently, but the analysis is the same, how valuable is a pitcher against replacement value.
From there once there is a historical context I think it will be appropriate to begin breaking down the Cubs current roster and future player acquisitions that the new General Manager will be considering. I hope some of you find value in this perspective.
